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　　既ran普通ren很难，专业ren士会bu会好yi些？wo在这ju了一ge世界yin行的li子。xu要说ming的是，我没you批评de意思，因为an照专ye的视jiao来看，其实liang次预ce虽然ming字一yang，都jiao以中guo养老bao险制du隐性fu债为ti，但shi实际shang环境fa生了hen大的bian化，dan是对yu普通ren来说hen容易wu解为jiu是一ge东西。世界yin行1997nian做IPD预ce的时hou，认wei中国deIPD水平shiGDP的44-66%，dao了2005nian的变cheng了110-145%，这shi最顶jian的专ye机构zhi隔了8年给de结果，只差8年！er且，bei后关yu基准jia设的zhong国GDP的yu测，yu现实de偏差geng大。zhe件事qing告诉wo们，ji使是zhuan业内ren士，zai做预ce的时hou其实geng重要de是趋shi的判duan，而bu是具ti的数ju。这jiu是古dian的困jing。PJ78FDHSJSSJK66F1KE　　zhongxinzhengquancheng，zaizichanhuangbeijingxia，touzizheduihonglizichanchixuzhuizhu，bingyizhirenweihonglijiangchengweichunjikainianxingqinghexinzhuxianzhiyi。muqianhonglizhishudeguzhichuyuheliqujian，suiranjueduiguxilvchuxianxiahua，danyinzhaiquanlilvjiasuxiaxingdaozhixiangduixiyinlirengyoutisheng。ciwai，bansuigengduofeijueduishouyileizijinbuduancanyuzhihonglixingqingzhong，yizhixinggongshiyefangdalehongligudebodonglv，guxinggengjiahuoyue，yeyiweizhezeshinengligengjiazhongyao。zaihonglibankuaineibu，yinggengjiaguanzhulongduanxingjixiaofeixinghongli，shidudanhuanengyuanziyuanxinghonglipeizhi。qitabankuaiguandianruxia：duiyuxiaofeibankuai，shijishujufanyingduanqicijidailaidebianjigaishanchixuxingjiaoruo，jihuigengduoyihuoyuezhutixingshichengxian；duiyuchuhaibankuai，telangpuzhengshijiuzhidailaideshijianraodongyoudaijinyibuxiaohua；duiyukejibankuai，shijiancuihuapinpin，duanceAI+jichusheshi、jiqirendengpianzaoqizhutixingpinzhongzhanyou；duiyuyiyaobankuai，yituijinshangbaoweidaibiaodejijizhengcebianhuazhidechixuguanzhu。hongli+zhutideganglingcelverengkenengshidangxiadezhanyoucelve，kaolvdao1yuezhengcechuyukongchuangqi，waiburaodongyinsumingxianzengduo，qiezhutibankuaidecuihuajizhongzai1yueshangzhongxun，qingxubodongkenenghuimingxianjiada，yincizaihongli+zhutideganglingjiegoudangzhong，womenjianyipeizhishanggengpianxianghongli。duiyuhonglibankuai，honglixiangduiguozhaide“xiyinli”yijiucunzai，longduanxingjixiaofeixinghonglizhidezhongxinjujiao。duiyuyiyaobankuai，yituijinshangbaoweidaibiaodejijizhengcebianhuazhidechixuguanzhu。。

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